Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 3.657357 3.968079 4.309180 4.714561 5.187425 5.726978 6.397219
2025-01-12 3.168017 3.561996 4.022172 4.609260 5.353687 6.289196 7.594765
2025-01-19 2.830185 3.252290 3.764788 4.449616 5.369264 6.609499 8.507135
2025-01-26 2.682016 3.142993 3.722836 4.532291 5.682458 7.351337 10.180195
2025-02-02 2.601071 3.103267 3.756053 4.706373 6.135036 8.374179 12.639874
2025-02-09 2.510008 3.038299 3.743721 4.807601 6.487849 9.315288 15.370508
2025-02-16 2.383593 2.914128 3.635899 4.752081 6.579713 9.826939 17.486173
2025-02-23 2.279425 2.811834 3.548526 4.714467 6.689895 10.392264 20.060745
2025-03-02 2.185230 2.716563 3.462679 4.667954 6.774086 10.924143 22.932675
2025-03-09 2.101532 2.630615 3.383478 4.622560 6.850924 11.458868 26.289315
2025-03-16 2.035890 2.566339 3.331403 4.615085 6.994769 12.182017 31.123137
2025-03-23 1.992831 2.531861 3.321253 4.675380 7.276641 13.324327 39.535960
2025-03-30 1.915663 2.444882 3.226802 4.585677 7.252428 13.706024 45.187189
2025-04-06 1.842936 2.361353 3.133259 4.490189 7.204412 14.018935 51.421261
2025-04-13 1.762947 2.263789 3.012728 4.337724 7.016715 13.886511 54.430526
2025-04-20 1.738457 2.248109 3.020893 4.417003 7.342683 15.411179 78.609456
2025-04-27 1.732993 2.260512 3.074280 4.583712 7.897092 17.996687 150.562512
2025-05-04 1.713685 2.250539 3.090047 4.680568 8.308605 20.389840 340.144357
2025-05-11 1.667984 2.197669 3.031419 4.627453 8.338337 21.279151 631.633577
2025-05-18 1.628082 2.152386 2.983347 4.591458 8.407510 22.410891 2085.107555
2025-05-25 1.588992 2.106992 2.932950 4.546937 8.448066 23.461014 NaN
2025-06-01 1.552224 2.064033 2.884798 4.503473 8.485836 24.553998 NaN
2025-06-08 1.523427 2.032765 2.855355 4.496315 8.624708 26.347788 NaN